What Could *Possibly* Go Wrong?
Posted on June 21st, 2011 at 1:24 pm by Steve

So, rising floodwaters in Nebraska have completely surrounded two nuclear power plants. But, hey, don’t worry! The plant at Fort Calhoun Station (a full 19 miles from Omaha – stay put, Warren Buffet!) has been in “cold shutdown” since April. The plant’s managers decided not to restart the nuclear chain reaction, given the impending floods.

Of course, they did have a “small fire” that…well, actually, it only knocked out the cooling water pumps in the “spent fuel” storage pool for 90 minutes, during which time the temperature in the pool rose “a few degrees.” But, hey, at that rate of temperature increase, it would’ve taken days (well, 88 hours) for the water in the pool to start boiling away. What happens then? The fuel melts… it oxidizes… it can catch fire and spread radioactive materials over a large area.

But, don’t panic! How could a nuclear plant possibly lose all of its power? I mean, they have grid power and backup generators, right? How could the grid connection fail? (Certainly not due to a massive regional flood!) How could the diesel generators fail? (Certainly not due to being submerged by the aforementioned flood!) After all, the operators of Fort Calhoun have planned ahead! They installed a giant rubber innertube around the plant to hold back the waters:

[Plant spokesman] Gates said an Aqua Dam currently protects the switchyard and substation at Fort Calhoun, tall enough to withstand floodwaters at a 1,010 elevation (the river level is currently at an elevation of 1,005 feet, 7 inches).

[Source: OPPD: Nuclear station “safe and will continue to be safe”, The Washington County Pilot-Tribune and Enterprise, June 17, 2011]

How could the river rise another four feet, five inches? I mean, it’s not like the levees and dams upstream are stressed and starting to breach? It’s not like it might rain any more than it already has…

Perhaps the most significant impact of the [June 20] storm was the large area of 1 – 4 inches of rain it dropped on Nebraska and South Dakota. This rain will run off into the Missouri River, further aggravating the flooding that has breached two levees and overtopped two other levees in the past week. The large, slow-moving low pressure system responsible for the rains and severe weather will bring additional heavy rains of 1 – 3 inches over portions of the Missouri River watershed today [June 21], and will touch off a new round of severe weather today and Wednesday as the storm progresses slowly eastwards.

[Source: Jeff Masters, Ph.D., founder and chief meteorologist of the Weather Underground, Inc.]

Well, the good thing is that nuclear plants in the United States are designed with extremely conservative assumptions, so there’s a very high margin of safety! Oh, and also… even for plants that were built 37 years ago, like the Cooper Nuclear Station, just downstream from Fort Calhoun (and also inundated with floodwaters), they’re subject to constant inspections and tough regulations!

Failed cables. Busted seals. Broken nozzles, clogged screens, cracked concrete, dented containers, corroded metals and rusty underground pipes — all of these and thousands of other problems linked to aging were uncovered in the AP’s yearlong investigation. And all of them could escalate dangers in the event of an accident.

Yet despite the many problems linked to aging, not a single official body in government or industry has studied the overall frequency and potential impact on safety of such breakdowns in recent years, even as the NRC has extended the licenses of dozens of reactors.

[…]

Records show a recurring pattern: Reactor parts or systems fall out of compliance with the rules. Studies are conducted by the industry and government, and all agree that existing standards are “unnecessarily conservative.”

Regulations are loosened, and the reactors are back in compliance.

[Source: “U.S. nuke regulators weaken safety rules,” by the Associated Press, June 20, 2011]

As Harry Shearer says, “Safe! Clean! Too cheap to meter! Our friend, the atom.”

Who Watches the (Weather) Watchmen?
Posted on April 13th, 2011 at 5:51 pm by Steve


I’ve long wanted to keep records of weather forecasts and compare them to actual results. But, I’m too lazy.

Fortunately, Forecast Advisor has started to do that for us! And, it turns out that my suspicions were correct.

At least for Boston, the weather forecasts are less than 80% accurate. Now, consider that these data are looking at just the 1-3 days ahead forecasts, and in fact are collapsing the data. The day-ahead forecasts are usually more accurate than the 3-days ahead forecasts. The company sells a data feed that I’m sure drills down to this level and beyond.

But consider: for March 2011, the National Weather Service predicted the high temperature within 3° F of the actual high temperature only 40% of the time! They accurately predicted the low temperature +/- 3° 53% of the time in March. They did slightly better with their precipitation forecasts – if they called for rain or snow, they were right about 83% of the time.

Over the past year, they did better on temperature predictions (63% right on the highs, 70% right on the lows) but worse on the precipitation calls (75% accurate).

What can we conclude? National Weather Service forecasts are better than chance… but not by a lot. Turns out, you don’t need a Weatherman to know which way the wind blows…

Water, Water Everywhere…
Posted on March 29th, 2010 at 1:57 pm by Steve

The image above is the National Weather Service’s Quantitative Precipitation Forecast for the next 48 hours. It predicts 4-5 inches of rain for the Boston metro area between now and midday Wednesday!

Free the Willies
Posted on February 25th, 2010 at 3:23 pm by necco

In light of the most recent Killer Whale attack at Sea World I think that cetaceans should not be held in captivity and forced to perform. The animals are clearly intelligent. They should be given the option to perform… maybe an “open” aquarium where they can voluntarily open a door, swim into and out of the ocean as they please and interact with humans on their own terms when desired. I wonder how many would be interested in this type of interaction…

Don’t get me started on octopuses and cuttlefish.

Best…Area Forecast Discussion…EVER!
Posted on February 21st, 2010 at 11:54 pm by Steve

If you’re like me – and I know I am – you love trying to understand and predict the weather. On the off chance you’re not like me, I’m reposting below my favorite recent “Area Forecast Discussion” product from the National Weather Service’s Taunton, MA office. Even with the jargon and peculiar typographic conventions, you can get a pretty keen sense of how weather systems and forecasts work by reading this discussion:

838
FXUS61 KBOX 220357
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1057 PM EST SUN FEB 21 2010

.SYNOPSIS…
TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS WEEK AND COULD BRING PERIODS OF WINTRY WEATHER…MAINLY TO THE INTERIOR. THE FIRST SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO AFFECT THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS IT TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A SECOND COASTAL STORM MAY AFFECT THE AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS IT TAKES A SIMILAR TRACK THROUGH OUR AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/… FOR THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST…HAVE LOWERED SKY COVER GRIDS TO ALMOST CLEAR OVER MOST OF THE AREA. SOME CIRRUS ADVANCING THROUGH EASTERN NY…SOME LOW CLOUDS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CHESHIRE COUNTY ARE THE TWO EXCEPTIONS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH CLOUDINESS SPILLING SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE GULF OF MAINE AS ANOTHER SPOKE OF VORTICITY ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW. 00Z NAM BRINGS THE CLOUD COVER INTO MASS BAY BY DAYBREAK THEN BACK EASTWARD OUT TO SEA…SO ADDED THIS TO SKY COVER GRIDS. NO CHANGES TO TEMPERATURE FORECAST OVERNIGHT. LOWERED WIND GUSTS IN WESTERN MA BUT KEPT WINDS AS FORECAST ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT SINCE BOS STILL GUSTING TO 24 KTS AS OF 10 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/…
MONDAY…THE FORECAST AREA WILL RESIDE WITHIN A COL AREA BETWEEN HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SUBSIDENCE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WILL NOTE SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY WELL AHEAD OF ADVANCING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND TO ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS…IN THE 40S MOST LOCATIONS. DEVELOPING LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR COOLING TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE MILDER MAV MOS GUIDANCE MOST AREAS.

MONDAY NIGHT…THE WEAK H5 RIDGE WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA. NOTED AN APPROACHING H7 MID LEVEL JET PROVIDING INCREASING MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES APPROACHING DAYBREAK FROM THE LATEST OPERATIONAL NAM/GFS. A LOW LEVEL ESE JET AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL PROVIDE SOME INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE AFTER 06Z ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ZONES. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR DEEP LIFT WILL LIKELY OCCUR WELL AFTER 06Z.

THERE ARE TIMING ISSUES REGARDING THE ARRIVAL TIME OF PRECIPITATION BUT FEEL IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE LOWER LEVELS FROM H85 TO THE SURFACE TO MOISTEN. THUS HAVE CHANCE POPS ADVERTISED FROM 06Z THROUGH 12Z ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES…BUT REMAINING DRY UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK ACROSS THE EAST. TEMPERATURE PROFILES REMAIN COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MOSTLY SNOW THROUGH DAYBREAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/…
VERY COMPLEX WX PATTERN DURING THIS EXTENDED PERIOD WITH PERSISTENT NORTH ATLANTIC BLOCKING REMAINING IN PLACE. SIGNIFICANT TROF AMPLIFICATION OCCURS OVER MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS PIECE OF ENERGY BREAKS OFF FROM HUDSON BAY VORTEX AND FORMS ANOTHER CLOSED VORTEX WHICH DROPS SWD ACROSS OHIO VALLEY EVENTUALLY SHIFTING EAST OVER NEW ENG TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. POTENTIAL FOR 2 STORMS TO AFFECT SNE DURING THE PERIOD.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PROLONGED WINTER WEATHER EVENT ACROSS SNE THROUGH AT LEAST WED ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN DETAILS OF QPF AND PTYPE. GREATEST PROABILITY FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUM DURING TUE-WED PERIOD WILL MOST LIKELY BE OVER NW HIGH TERRAIN.

COASTAL STORM DEVELOPS OFF MID ATLC COAST TUE AS PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY BREAKS OFF FROM DEVELOPING VORTEX DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE MIDWEST. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MODEL SPREAD WITH THE TRACK OF THIS STORM SO CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF QPF/PTYPE IS LOW. GFS/NAM FURTHEST EAST AS THEY DEVELOP THE STORM WELL OFFSHORE ALTHOUGH INVERTED TROF HANGING BACK TO THE WEST ENSURES PRECIP ACROSS SNE. OP GFS HAS NO SUPPORT FROM MAJORITY OF ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WHICH ARE FURTHER WEST BUT ALSO CONDISERABLE SPREAD AMONG ALL MEMBERS. GGEM ON WESTERN ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS TRACKING STORM NWD THROUGH NYS. ANSWER PROBABLY LIES SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN MORE IN LINE WITH ECMWF/GEFS MEAN/SREF BLEND WHICH TRACK STORM SLOWLY NWD INTO E NEW ENG DURING WED.

CURRENT THINKING IS PRECIP WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST DURING TUE…BUT HEAVIER QPF WILL PROBABLY BE FOCUSED ACROSS LOWER CT VALLEY TUE WITH STEADIER PRECIP MOVING EAST ACROSS REST OF SNE TUE NIGHT.

PTYPE IS TRICKY. PRECIP COULD BEGIN AS A PERIOD OF SNOW IN THE COASTAL PLAIN BUT WE THINK THERE IS TOO MUCH LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW WHICH SHOULD OVERWHELM THE BOUNDARY LAYER RESULTING IN MOSTLY RAIN FROM BOS-PVD SEWD WITH SOME MIXING POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT. NOT BUYING THE COLD NAM SOLUTION FOR BOS/PVD AS MAIN STORM IS LIKELY TOO FAR EAST. BEST CHANCE FOR ALL SNOW WILL BE OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN IN BERKSHIRES…MONADNOCKS AND HILLS ACROSS NORTHERN ORH COUNTY. IN BETWEEN THESE 2 AREAS FROM N CT AND MASS PIKE REGION NORTHWARD ALONG I495 BELT IS WHERE CONFIDENCE IS LOWEST IN PTYPE. WILL PROBABLY SEE A PERIOD OF SNOW THEN MIXED RAIN/SNOW AS BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS.

PRECIP CONTINUES INTO WED…BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING AFTERNOON/EVENING AS DRY SLOT MOVES IN WITH APPROACH OF SFC LOW. HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR GREATER THAN 6″ WITH LOCALLY UP TO A FOOT WILL BE OVER NW HIGHER TERRAIN…WITH ADVSY SNOWFALL POSSIBLE IN INTERIOR NW OF I95. FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN…THINKING RIGHT NOW IS LITTLE ACCUM EXPECTED.

THEN THERE IS THE SECOND COASTAL STORM WHICH DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO VORTEX MOVING EWD FROM OHIO VALLEY AND OFF THE MID ATLC COAST THU INTO FRI. AGAIN THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS STORM AS THE INTERACTION OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE THE POSITION OF THE VORTEX AND EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT/TRACK OF COASTAL STORM. STILL WAY TOO EARLY TO EVEN ATTEMPT TO PIN ANYTHING DOWN SO WE JUST HAVE CHC POPS FOR NOW.

UNSETTLED WEATHER COULD LINGER INTO SAT WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE BY NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/…
OVERNIGHT…HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR.

MONDAY…HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR.

MONDAY NIGHT…VFR CEILINGS EXCEPT LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS IN DEVELOPING -SN KBAF-KBDL-WST BY 09Z.

OUTLOOK…TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY…

TUE-WED…HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN MIXED RAIN/SNOW WITH PERIODS OF IFR POSSIBLE. GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS ALONG THE COAST.

THU-FRI…CONDITIONS DEPEND ON DEVELOPMENT/TRACK OF SECOND COASTAL STORM. THERE COULD BE MORE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW.

&&

.MARINE…
OVERNIGHT…SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS AS OF 10 PM…STILL HAD GUSTS TO 29 KTS AT BUOY 44018 AND TO 27 KTS AT 44013. ALSO SEAS WILL AVERAGE 4 TO 6 FEET OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY…A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED UNTIL AROUND NOON FOR LEFTOVER HAZARDOUS SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.

MONDAY NIGHT…A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY APPROACHING DAYBREAK TUESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN WATERS AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST.

OUTLOOK…TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY…

TUE-WED…INCREASING E-NE WINDS WITH PROLONGED PERIOD OF GUSTS TO 30 KT EXPECTED. LOWER PROB OF GALE FORCE GUSTS DEPENDING ON TRACK/DEVLOPMENT OF THE FIRST COASTAL STORM. ECMWF WOULD BRING STRONG GALES TUE NIGHT INTO WED FOR EASTERN WATERS BUT GFS IS WEAKER. SEAS LIKELY BUILDING TO OVER 10 FEET OVER OUTER WATERS BY WED…POTENTIALLY STRONGER IF ECMWF SOLUTION VERIFIES.

THU-FRI…WINDS/SEAS WILL DEPEND ON DEVELOPMENT/TRACK OF POSSIBLE SECOND COASTAL STORM. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MODEL SPREAD WHICH RESULTS IN VERY LOW CONFIDENCE ON WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING…
COASTAL FLOOD TREAT IS LOW THROUGH TUE DUE TO LOW ASTRO TIDES AND SEAS NOT HAVING BUILT UP ENOUGH BY THEN. COASTAL FLOOD POTENTIAL INCREASES FOR THE WED MORNING HIGH TIDE. STORM SURGE OF 2 FEET COMBINED WITH 10-15 FT SEAS OFFSHORE COULD YIELD WORST CASE SCENARIO OF MINOR FLOODING.

HOWEVER…BEACH EROSION MAY BECOME A PROBLEM ON EAST FACING BEACHES DUE TO PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW OVER MULTIPLE HIGH TIDE CYCLES.

NEXT STORM AFFECTING REGION TOWARD END OF WEEK ALSO BEARS WATCHING AS ASTRO TIDES ARE HIGHER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
CT…NONE.
MA…NONE.
NH…NONE.
RI…NONE.
MARINE…SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS…KJC/STRAUSS/GAF
NEAR TERM…GAF
SHORT TERM…STRAUSS
LONG TERM…KJC
AVIATION…KJC/STRAUSS
MARINE…KJC/STRAUSS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING…KJC

Neurogastroenterology. Really.
Posted on February 16th, 2010 at 12:48 pm by Steve

You have more neurons in your stomach and intestines than in your spinal cord or peripheral nervous system. Some call it “the second brain:”

Technically known as the enteric nervous system, the second brain consists of sheaths of neurons embedded in the walls of the long tube of our gut, or alimentary canal, which measures about nine meters end to end from the esophagus to the anus. The second brain contains some 100 million neurons, more than in either the spinal cord or the peripheral nervous system…

And yes, apparently there is a new field of medicine known as Neurogastroenterology!

On the Origin of Specious
Posted on February 3rd, 2010 at 11:07 am by Steve

Okay, so maybe referring to The Obama as specious is a bit of a stretch, but, dammit, I wanted that pun! And, really, it was just a setup for this awesome graphic by artist Mike Rosulek:

The Idea Is Like Grass
Posted on January 29th, 2010 at 6:59 pm by Steve

“The idea is like grass. It craves light, likes crowds, thrives on crossbreeding, grows better for being stepped on.”

Ursula K. Le Guin, The Dispossessed

America’s Rivers: A Drying Shame
Posted on January 28th, 2010 at 4:17 pm by Steve

Rebecca Solnit writes in the London Review of Books of the water-powered rise and fall of the North American west:

Eighty per cent of the Colorado River’s water goes to agriculture. Twenty per cent of California’s agricultural water goes to grow low-value alfalfa. The river, in its climate-change-driven decline, will strangle all these projects and make a mockery of the two great dams and the reservoirs that were once signs of triumph over it and over nature. The reservoirs and dams are failing now, long on silt, short on water, products of the short-sightedness that has made the West a place littered with projects that seemed like a good idea at the time.

Indeed, the epitaph for most of the “modern world” could be simply “projects that seemed like a good idea at the time.” The UN’s triennial World Water Development report says, “Humanity has embarked on a huge ecological engineering project with little or no preconception – or indeed full present knowledge – of the consequences. We have sought to redesign and impose a new order on natural planetary systems, built over aeons of time.”

(By the way, that UN quote, the riverbed image, and the inspiration for this blog post’s title, come from Arteries International.)

Feedback: Another Wow Moment
Posted on January 28th, 2010 at 2:25 pm by dr.hoo


As fans of feedback thought you might enjoy this example of one of those exciting moments of discovery.

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